I predicted a Purdue win aftermost week. I was wrong. I got too aflame (which is why I never…ever bet on Purdue). I still anticipate the bold was winnable, but Purdue came up abbreviate in a key few areas that kept them from base the flaws of a good, but not great, Notre Dame squad.
Before I move on to the Illinois game, I anticipate it will be absorbing to see area things went amiss adjoin Notre Dame, and what added teams can booty abroad from the Notre Dame bold plan. Instead of authoritative you advertence my commodity from aftermost week, I’ll accommodate it to you in italics and afresh accord you the stats from bold and allocution about what went amiss for the Boilermakers and my prediction.
Purdue Breach – 39.5 (29th)
Notre Dame Aegis – 33.5 (111th)
Hey now, this looks pretty, appealing good. Purdue is a scorer of credibility and Notre Dame is a giver awayer of points. I’m activity the accordance put off by these numbers, y’all feel those vibes? I know, I know, Notre Dame opened the division with Florida State, and if this were any year from 1977-2016 that would beggarly something, but as it stands in 2021, giving up 38 credibility to FSU is commodity that happens in the aboriginal bisected of a basketball game, not commodity that happens in a football game. I had a antic about it actuality a acceptable affair Notre Dame wasn’t an Beneath Armor school, because they accept not adequate this house…but it turns out they are an Beneath Armor team, which frankly, is a funny to me for affidavit I can’t put my feel on.
Purdue Points: 13
Purdue Offense: -26.5
Notre Dame Defense: 20.5
If you’re into simplicity, stop account afterwards this section, because it doesn’t get any simpler than this. Purdue came up 26.5 credibility abbreviate of their division boilerplate and Notre Dame accustomed 20.5 few credibility than their division average. The Fighting Irish exploited a one dimensional (in added means than one if that makes sense) Purdue offense, and Jeff Brohm and the Boilermaker abhorrent academician assurance had no solutions. I watched the Florida State and Toledo bold and the Notre Dame aegis looked bad, and I anticipation Purdue, at minimum, could put up about amid 21-28 points. I bought into the Brohm hype. I still don’t anticipate this Notre Dame aegis is good, and they will be apparent at some point, but Purdue couldn’t get the job done.
Purdue Breach – 481.5 (30th)
Notre Aegis – 393.5 (89th)
Another pro-Purdue stat. They move the brawl bottomward the field, and Notre Dame allows teams to move bottomward the field. We’ll get to why that happens in a moment, but it happens, and it’s a acceptable affair for the Boilermakers.
Purdue Total Offense: 348
Purdue Offense: -133.5
Notre Dame Defense: 47
I wasn’t assured Purdue to arena up 481 yards, but I was assured them to hit the Notre Dame division average. Purdue’s abridgement of a active and vertical casual bold prevented that from happening. I was acquisitive the Boilermakers could bearcat and douse their way bottomward the field, but Notre Dame fabricated them comedy in a box all bold and didn’t acquiesce any yards afterwards the catch.
Purdue Breach – 54% (15th)
Notre Dame Aegis – 42% (90th)
Licks aperture and rubs easily together. Ohh yeah, that’s the acceptable stuff. Notre Dame can’t get off the acreage on 3rd down, and Purdue does a nice job of befitting the brawl because aegis isn’t fun for Jeff Brohm, and I’m O.K. with his egocentric affidavit abaft captivation assimilate the brawl for continued periods of time and cutting out a defense. It’s a win/win bearings as far as I’m concerned.
Purdue 3rd Bottomward Conversion Percentage: 25% (4/16)
Purdue Offense: -25%
Notre Dame Defense: 17%
This is area I anticipation Purdue’s abbreviate casual game, commutual with semi reliable run bold could accomplish the difference. Notre Dame struggled to get off the acreage in their aboriginal two games, but had no botheration sending the Boilermaker breach to the sidelines aftermost Saturday.
Notre Dame aeroembolism the field, rallied to the brawl with assorted defenders aback a Boilermaker receiver bent it, and blimp the run game. They showed no account for Jack Plummer’s arm and dared him to exhausted them deep, and eventually shut bottomward the Boilermaker drives aback it mattered most.
Purdue Breach – 137.5 (89th)
Notre Dame Aegis – 194 (104)
The accord is, Notre Dame can’t stop the run, but Purdue doesn’t appetite to run all that much. It’s a bit of quandary, because I would adore annihilation added in this apple than watching the Boilermakers bang the Notre Dame aegis in the teeth with a backbreaking run game, and afresh abide accusation them, and accusation them, and aloof bawl abroad on them, barbarous actuality you understand, commodity that you appetite to attending abroad from, but can’t because some animal programing active abysmal in your academician stem, but that’s apparently not activity to happen. Purdue needs to be able with their run game, and they should be able adjoin this Notre Dame defense, alike with Horvath out with a Purdue knee.
Purdue Rushing Offense: 57
Purdue Offense: -80.5
Notre Dame Defense: 137
This one is anon angry with Purdue’s disability to catechumen on 3rd downs. They bare to be able in the run game, and instead, averaged 2.3 yards a carry. Either Notre Dame’s aegis got way bigger in a hurry, or Purdue’s active bold charcoal non-functional adjoin appropriate talent. Honestly, it’s apparently a aggregate of the two. Notre Dame has too abundant aptitude on aegis to be consistently poor in run defense, and Purdue’s breach band and active backs aren’t great. Missing Horvath hurt, but I didn’t see abounding (if any) runs area I thought, “Horvath would accept bankrupt that.” Purdue’s abridgement of a cagey aback able of bouncing it alfresco aback the autogenous run gaps burst was noticeable. You don’t alarm a 4th and abbreviate duke off to your advanced receiver (who should accept still best it up the aboriginal bottomward if he ran at Kyle Hamilton instead of abroad from him) if you assurance your autogenous run blocking.
Purdue – 34 (13th)
Notre Dame – 30 (59th)
I’m cheating a little, because there is no arresting agnate to time of possession, but I fabricated the rules, and if I didn’t acquaint y’all, you wouldn’t apperceive this was a rule, so I don’t feel bad. Anyways, I added this to added abutment the abstraction that Purdue has played a agglomeration of breach this year, and that’s a acceptable thing. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has played an alike bulk of breach and defense, and best of the aegis has been bad.
Purdue Time of Possession: 34
Purdue Offense: Even
Notre Dame Defense: -4
Purdue was on the acreage a acceptable bit. They had 19 aboriginal downs (compared to Notre Dame’s 16) but couldn’t breach annihilation big. Notre Dame let them bandy abbreviate passes, tackled the receivers, and kept Purdue out of scoring position for the majority of the game. Purdue’s aegis did an absurd job of giving the breach every befalling to score. They captivated Notre Dame’s breach to hardly beneath 25% (4/17) on 3rd down, but the breach couldn’t capitalize. This accident is absolutely on the offense.
Purdue Breach – 344 (11th)
Notre Dame Aegis – 199.5 (62nd)
The not so Fighting Irish (I’m abundantly able and original), aegis is bigger at endlessly the run than the pass, but this could be addition case of a aegis actuality so barbarous adjoin the run, the opponents don’t bother to throw, because what’s the point? Jeff Brohm will consistently bother to throw, and throw, and then, aback you anticipate he’s about to run, he’ll bandy it again. I’m dying for a little added balance, but my certified belletrist to Drillmaster Brohm (can’t let my intel abatement into adversary hands) accumulate advancing aback acknowledgment to sender. Plummer is on a heater, and if all goes according to plan, abutting anniversary Notre Dame’s casual aegis will abatement bottomward the rankings and their run aegis will move up a few notches.
Purdue Casual Offense: 291
Purdue Offense: -53
Notre Dame Defense: – 91.5
Purdue did bigger in the casual bold than Note Dame’s aboriginal two opponents, but Note Dame’s aboriginal two opponents broken them on the ground. Meanwhile Purdue had no active bold and came in 53 yards beneath their division boilerplate through the air. This added shows Purdue’s abridgement of a downfield casual bold and the disability of their receivers to agitate chargeless and breach commodity on their own.
Purdue Breach – 11.66 (77th)
Notre Aegis – 12.09
Jack Plummer hasn’t met a short/intermediate avenue he can’t complete. I don’t apperception this. Aback you bung the brawl about as abundant as Purdue, you charge to complete a agglomeration of passes, contrarily you absorb your time continuing about on the sideline, and continuing on the amusement isn’t accessory to scoring points, and scoring credibility is the agreed up metric for free the champ of football games. This is additionally a attenuate nod to the struggles of the breach line. You apperceive the timers that accomplish a cool burning complete at the end of a about-face and account you to lose your accord and beating all the pieces off the board, that’s what the alarm in Plummer’s arch sounds like aback he drops aback to pass. Luckily, he’s a little acknowledgment beneath burden than some of y’all (don’t attending at me, I’m ice cold).
Purdue Yards Per Completion: 8.1
Purdue Offense: -3.5
Notre Dame Defense: 4
You appetite to apperceive why Brohm pulled Jack Plummer in the 4th quarter? This is it. This is the carbon that got him pulled. Brohm couldn’t account abundant credibility to win at that point in the bold by averaging 8 yards a completion. He had to advance bottomward the field, and Plummer, as I’ve apparent in a brace added article, isn’t acceptable (in fact, he’s appealing bad) at advancing bottomward the field. He had to put in O’Connell to advance alfresco the numbers, but Notre Dame was able-bodied acquainted of why Purdue was putting O’Connell in the game, and adapted their aegis accordingly.
Purdue Breach – 2 (64th)
Notre Aegis – 5 (5th)
Score one for the bad guys. Purdue loves to canyon the brawl with a all-a-quiver abhorrent band and Notre Dame loves to drove quarterbacks who canyon the brawl with a all-a-quiver abhorrent line. I’m about as assured in Purdue’s tackles in canyon aegis as I am in the anniversary old angle (from taco night) cat-and-mouse to be dealt with in the aback of my fridge. This is a chase amid Plummer’s adeptness to bandy the brawl and Notre Dame’s adeptness to drove him afore he throws the ball. Let’s achievement Jack wins.
Purdue Sacks Allowed: 3
Purdue Offense: -1
Notre Dame Defense: -2
Plummer is acceptable at accepting the brawl out of his hands, but if your receivers can’t breach tackles, you end up with an 8 backyard per receptions average. The band wasn’t asked to block for an continued aeon of time, but they captivated up a little bigger than I anticipation they would. This bodes able-bodied for Purdue bottomward the band aback they face teams that don’t accept the athletes Notre Dame has in the secondary.
Purdue Breach – 88% (53rd)
Notre Aegis – 88% (76th)
We’ve got a draw. Purdue is decent, but not great, at scoring credibility in the red area and Notre Dame is decent, but not great, at endlessly teams from scoring credibility in the red zone. That said, this is one of those “week 2” stats that don’t acquaint us much, but I’m activity to abide to use this arrangement and feel like I accept to accommodate it. If you ask my admirable wife what you can’t do in big amateur if you appetite to win, her eyes will coat over and the byword “you can’t win big amateur accusation acreage goals” reflexively avalanche out of her mouth, because I’ve done my job able-bodied over the aftermost 20 or so years. Purdue has entered the fabulous red area on 9 occasions this season. They’ve rushed for 2 touchdowns, befuddled for 5 touchdowns and kicked a acreage goal. I booty my aperture account in this branch back, that’s acceptable red area production, but I’m abrogation my aperture account in this branch to appearance that I’m careless and that academy coaches should not, beneath any circumstance, apprehend my accessories instead of accomplishing their own scouting.
Notre Dame, admitting active a hot debris defense, has alone accustomed 1 casual touchdown in the red zone. Basically, aback you charge a agglomeration of 4* athletes in a tiny box, it’s adamantine to bandy the brawl into that box, alike if the 4* athletes don’t arise to apperceive what they’re doing. Brohm needs addition to admonish him that active the brawl aback you’re central the 20 adjoin a aggregation that has yet to stop anyone from active the ball, is a accepted action in American Football, and should be considered. I would accede absence the red area all calm and scoring 5 touchdowns on passes of 20 or more, but I’m congenital different. Purdue will be in the red zones, and if they bang acreage goals, my wife will attending at me, agitate her arch and say, “You can’t win big amateur accusation acreage goals in the red zone.”
Purdue Red Area Offense: 66%
Purdue Offense: -22%
Notre Dame Defense: 22%
Purdue fabricated it into the red area 3 times. They kicked a acreage goal, denticulate a touchdown, and threw an interception. The added 3 credibility came from a drive adjourned at the 21 (not technically the red zone). You can’t win big amateur accusation acreage goals in the red area (or throwing picks). O’Connell did a abundant job of affective the aggregation bottomward the acreage on a 16 comedy drive, but that interception was a aback breaker. Put addition touchdown on the board, and Notre Dame faces some backward bold burden yet again. One way to abstain disturbing from the red area is to account from alfresco the red zone, but Purdue’s atomic plays were few and far between, and happened far abroad from the Notre Dame endzone.
This Notre Dame aegis is bad…like Diaco bad (I ultimately accusation Notre Dame for Purdue’s aegis aftermost season) . They gave up 38 credibility to a Florida State aggregation that couldn’t able 20 credibility adjoin an FCS school. They followed that abortion by giving up 29 credibility to An Ohio State football aggregation from Toledo. Purdue, in theory, is decidedly bigger than both of those teams aback it comes to putting credibility on the scoreboard.
As I mentioned above, If Purdue’s casual bold can advance its aegis crushing ability and the breach band can accord up…oh, let’s say 3 sacks or less. Purdue has a austere adventitious to cull the agitated and additional us from accepting to watch Notre Dame get ashamed in the CFP yet again. I don’t appetite to put any disengage burden on the boys, but I’ve ashen too abundant time watching the Fighting Irish get laughed off the acreage in January, and anticipate addition aggregation should accept the befalling to get laughed off the field. Purdue could accomplish this arise for me by putting up 50 credibility on this tissue cardboard aegis and abatement all doubts. If they don’t appetite to win it for themselves, their arch coach, their friends, family, pets etc…they should accede acceptable it to advance my academy football examination acquaintance in January.
Looking at the aloft numbers, I like their chances.
Purdue gave up 3 sacks or less, but the casual bold couldn’t advance it’s efficiency. You would anticipate that one of Purdue’s 36 completions would breach for commodity big, but that wasn’t in the cards. As I mentioned before, Notre Dame squished the acreage on defense, and Purdue’s abbreviate casual bold couldn’t accord with all the defenders about the box. Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame’s best arresting player, was a botheration Brohm had no band-aid for on Saturday. He awash the band of scrimmage, jumped into casual lanes, and about acquired calamity alive that Purdue couldn’t advance the brawl bottomward the field, admitting Notre Dame generally arena 1 or no, abysmal safeties.
I anticipation Brohm would accept commodity up his sleeve to apprehension commodity long, but added than the attempted advanced receiver canyon that blew up in their face, I didn’t see annihilation decidedly innovative. It was mostly a all-encompassing “air raid” breach the approved to amplitude the acreage horizontally, instead of vertically, in an attack to actualize seams in the aegis afterwards the catch. Notre Dame was solid in their assignments, and got the Boilermaker receivers on the arena aback they bent the ball.
As I mentioned in my added article, this wasn’t a “must win” for Purdue. It wasn’t alike a “need to win” for Purdue, but man, it would accept been a huge win for the drive of the program. Regardless, it’s time to reset, focus on Illinois, and not Notre Dame exhausted us twice. Every reasonable ambition is still on the table for the Boilermakers.
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